June 16, 2026

The Markets

Markets rarely move in a straight line.

Investors had a lot to consider last week. Rising inflation, interest rate uncertainty, and ongoing conflict in the Middle East weighed on markets. Yet stocks finished the week higher amid hopes for peace, enthusiasm for a stock launch, and improved consumer sentiment. Here’s a recap:

• Consumer prices rose. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation accelerating to its fastest annual pace in more than three years. Inflation was up 4.2 percent year over year in May. Rising prices remain a challenge for households and continue to complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) efforts to bring inflation back to its two percent target.
• Rate uncertainty persisted. Higher inflation raised fresh questions about how long interest rates will remain at or above current levels. “The high inflation reading has scuttled any plans to lower interest rates in June. The question is whether interest rate cuts are off the table for the foreseeable future,” reported Kyle Campbell of American Banker.
• The technology sector oscillated. Technology stocks regained ground after the previous week’s selloff, but volatility is likely to persist. “Conviction in technology megacaps, the market’s most reliable bets for most of the spring, has deteriorated, forcing the group to flip-flop between losses and gains…the back-and-forth rotation is likely here to stay…as investors weigh signs of a solid economy against rising prospects of restrictive monetary policy,” reported Joel Leon of Bloomberg.
• Investor enthusiasm soared. The tech sector also benefited from extreme investor excitement about the launch of a rocketry company’s stock. The new stock had high valuations even though the company has an unconventional governance structure. Elon Musk retains “more than 80 [percent] of the voting rights, while also making him chief executive and chief technical officer, as well as chair of the board. He is in effect the only person who can remove himself as CEO,” reported Frances Schwartzkopff of Bloomberg.
• The Iran War continued. U.S. stocks fell, then rebounded as the Iran War rollercoaster delivered another drop and climb last week. Major U.S. stock indexes fell after military action escalated in the Middle East, reported The Wall Street Journal. Stock markets rebounded the next day “after President Trump said he canceled plans to strike Iran…and suggested renewed peace talks were happening,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s.
• Consumer sentiment improved. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed consumers were feeling more optimistic. In early June, “consumer sentiment ticked up…with consumers experiencing some relief due to the early-month easing in gasoline prices. This measured improvement in sentiment was widespread, seen across age, education, and political party,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

Major U.S. stock indexes finished the week higher. Yields on most maturities U.S. Treasuries moved lower last week.

Data as of 6/12/26	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 Index	0.7%	8.6%	22.9%	19.7%	11.8%	13.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	0.5	11.4	24.8	15.3	5.3	7.2
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.5	N/A	4.4	3.8	1.5	1.6
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-2.9	-2.4	24.6	29.1	17.8	12.7
Bloomberg Commodity Index	-2.4	18.0	25.3	9.0	6.5	3.8

What Do You Know About the World Cup?

The FIFA World Cup is finally here. For the next month or so, billions of fans around the globe will be glued to their screens, sleep will be sacrificed, and watercooler talk will debate refs, red cards, and rivalries. Whether you call it soccer, football, fútbol, futebol, calcio, or something else entirely, the World Cup has a way of turning casual observers into enthusiastic fans. See what you know about the beautiful game by taking this brief quiz.

1. Who is the all-time top scorer in World Cup history?
1. Miroslav Klose
2. Abby Wambach
3. Marta
4. Ronaldo


2. According to Morningstar, research shows that when a country's team loses during the “knock-out” rounds, its stock market tends to:
1. Close for a national day of mourning
2. Rise because workers refocus on their jobs
3. Fall because disappointed investors become more pessimistic
4. Remain unchanged because sports don't affect markets


3. Over the 39 days of the 2026 World Cup matches, workplace productivity in the United States is expected to:
1. Rise as employees are inspired by the athletes’ work ethic
2. Fall as employee-fans are distracted, miss work, and follow matches during work hours
3. Remain largely unchanged because most matches occur outside working hours
4. Rise as companies use the tournament to boost employee engagement


4. When the number of men’s and women’s team victories is combined, which country has won the most World Cup trophies?
1. Brazil
2. United States
3. Germany
4. Italy

What is your favorite piece of World Cup trivia?

Answers: 1) c; 2) c; 3) b; 4) c

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“I am constantly being asked about individuals. The only way to win is as a team. Football is not about one or two or three star players.”

–Pelé, Professional footballer

Wishing you and your families well,
Sean M. Dowling, CFP, EA
President, The Dowling Group Wealth Management

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