March 31, 2026

The Markets

The journey toward long-term financial goals is often interrupted by unexpected events that create stress and uncertainty. That’s one reason financial plans are built with a keen eye to risk tolerance. When disruptive events occur and financial markets lose value, even the most experienced investors have questions and concerns. Over the last few months, markets have traveled a particularly bumpy road.

We’ve seen geopolitics create uncertainty. The United States government has been reshaping economic and geopolitical relationships with the rest of the world. Last week, the military conflict in Iran took a toll on financial markets. Lu Wang and Isabelle Lee of Bloomberg reported, “Market declines sparked by the Iran war are morphing into a full-blown rout across Wall Street. Efforts to broker an end to the fighting and restart the flow of Middle East oil produced only further escalation, which in turn fueled an ever-greater sense of dread in markets.”

We’ve seen forecasts for economic growth and inflation change. Last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that “conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy.” Its March 2026 Economic Outlook forecasts that inflation will move sharply higher in 2026.

	Economic Growth (after inflation)				Inflation (including food & energy prices)
	2025	2026	2027		2025	2026	2027
United States	2.1%	2.0%	1.7%		2.6%	4.2 %	1.6%
G20 countries	3.3%	3.0%	3.0%		3.4%	4.0%	2.7%

We’ve seen consumer optimism fade. In early March, consumer sentiment improved. Those gains reversed later in the month after the conflict in Iran began, according to the University of Michigan (UofM) Consumer Survey. By month’s end, the Sentiment Index was lower month over month and year over year.

“Consumers with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth, buffeted by both escalating gas prices and volatile financial markets in the wake of the Iran conflict, exhibited particularly large drops in sentiment,” reported Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

Sentiment is an important indicator of consumer spending, which is the key driver of U.S. economic growth. Falling sentiment may translate to lower spending and slower economic growth, and vice versa, reported Aja McClanahan of U.S. News & World Report.

We’ve seen government deficits and debts increase. Last week, the U.S. national debt rose above $39 trillion for the first time, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, causing the U.S. Fiscal Confidence Index to drop to the lowest level in nearly two years. “There is a fundamental imbalance between [government] spending and [tax] revenues that will continue to grow in future years,” reported the Foundation.

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average both moved into correction territory, meaning they declined 10 percent or more from previous highs. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also moved lower, according to Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. Bond yields rose, influenced “by rising inflation expectations but also by a repricing of what central banks intend to do next, a shift playing out from Washington to Frankfurt to Tokyo, according to Wang and Lee.

If you’re feeling uncertain, please get in touch. We’re happy to discuss any questions or concerns you may have.

Data as of 3/27/26	1-Week	Y-T-D	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 Index	-2.1%	-7.0%	11.9%	17.0%	9.9%	12.1%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index	-0.5	-0.3	19.8	13.0	4.3	6.0
10-year Treasury Note (yield only)	4.4	N/A	4.4	3.5	1.7	1.9
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-1.9	4.2	46.4	31.9	21.4	14.0
Bloomberg Commodity Index	0.0	22.3	27.1	9.0	9.8	5.4

What Do You Know About Fictional Wealth?

When markets are volatile, we can all use some light-hearted fun. Recently, a financial website picked up where Forbes left off in 2013 by publishing the “Fictional 15”, a list of wealthy characters from fiction (movies, books, cartoons, television, video games, and comics). See what you know about fictional wealth by taking this brief quiz.

1. Why did Forbes originally create the Fictional 15 List?
1. Estimating the wealth of dragons, comic book moguls, and cartoon tycoons, allowed Forbes analysts to explore unconventional asset classes.
2. Cruella de Vil financed it because she likes to see her name in print.
3. Wealthy people often are reduced to caricatures, Forbes decided to satirize that by treating fictional characters as real people.
4. People like reading about wealthy people, fictional or not.


2. Which fictional character topped the 2025 list of richest fictional characters?
1. Scrooge McDuck, richest duck in the world
2. Forrest Gump, shrimping magnate
3. T’Challa, King of Wakanda
4. Tony Stark, Iron Man


3. Why was Santa Claus removed from the Forbes Fictional 15 list?
1. Santa preferred not to publish data about his net worth.
2. Analysts struggled to apply traditional valuation models to Santa’s operation.
3. People objected to Santa being on a list of fictional characters.
4. Santa’s business model of delivering packages for free in a single night was economically disruptive.


4. Who was the only woman to be included on the list in 2025?
1. Carol Miller, Mom in Futurama
2. Lara Croft, Archeologist
3. Lady Mary Crawley, Downton Abbey
4. The Tooth Fairy

While none of us has a dragon’s hoard or a magic money tree, we all have the opportunity to build wealth by saving and investing.

Answers: 1) c; 2) c; 3) c; 4) b

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Passion is one great force that unleashes creativity, because if you're passionate about something, then you're more willing to take risks.”

—Yo-Yo Ma, cellist

Wishing you and your families well,
Sean M. Dowling, CFP, EA
President, The Dowling Group Wealth Management

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