Reminder: Free Shredding Service at GB&T This Saturday

Our neighbors at Greenwich Bank & Trust plan to hold a community document shredding day on Saturday, September 13th from 12—2:30 PM. Any clients who need their old financial or other sensitive documents destroyed can have them securely shredded at no charge. GB&T is located at 1103 East Putnam Avenue, just down the road from our offices.

Tax Extension Deadline Is Approaching

If you filed for an extension earlier this year, the final deadline to submit your 2024 tax return is Tuesday, October 15th. Please make sure all documents are uploaded and any open items are addressed well before then so we can ensure timely filing. Please reach out if you have any remaining questions—we’re happy to help!

The Markets

Was the jobs report good news or bad news for the stock market?

In financial markets, sometimes bad news is good. It looked like that might be the case last week. On Friday, the Employment Situation Summary was released. It showed U.S. businesses added just 22,000 jobs in August – well below expectations. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted 75,000 new jobs would be added. The unemployment rate ticked higher, moving from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent.

That was not good news for American workers. “The [employment data] will likely heighten concerns about the durability of the labor market… Accounting for the revisions in this report, employment growth in the last three months has averaged just 29,000. Payrolls have come in under 100,000 for four straight months, extending the weakest stretch of job growth since the pandemic,” reported Molly Smith of Bloomberg.

At first, investors celebrated, and U.S. stocks moved higher. The bad news was good news because it increased the likelihood the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower the federal funds rate at its next meeting. When the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, rates on credit cards, home equity loans, and other types of loans typically move lower, too. Low rates inspire more spending and make it cheaper to borrow, which can stimulate economic growth and lift stock prices.

As investors considered what a less robust job market might mean for economic growth, sentiment shifted. “Strong evidence the U.S. labor market is slowing rippled through Wall Street, driving stocks lower and bonds higher on concern the Federal Reserve will now have to rush to prevent further weakness. The sharp cooling triggered fears about a more pronounced jobs slowdown, sparking a flight to Treasuries, with two-year yields hitting the lowest level since 2022,” explained Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg.

Investors may have recalled a late-August speech in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the U.S. labor market was in a “curious kind of balance” due to “a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes gained over the week, despite dipping lower on Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week lower. Treasury yields fell across all maturities.

Register Now: Designing Your Retirement

We hope you’ll join us for Kip Meyer’s discussion on designing your “third act”: retirement. Kip is a Greenwich native with extensive business and life coaching experience, having worked with global organizations including the United Nations, Oracle, Citi, and Liberty Mutual.

This free online seminar will be held next Wednesday, September 17th from 6-7 PM. RSVP today to secure your spot! Simply email katie@thedowlinggroup.com or call 203.967.2231. You’ll receive a link to the seminar just ahead of the event.


Data as of 9/5/25 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 Index 0.3% 10.2% 17.8% 18.4% 13.9% 12.7%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index 0.6 20.0 16.3 13.2 6.6 5.3
10-year Treasury Note (yield only) 4.1 N/A 3.7 3.3 0.7 2.2
Gold (per ounce) 4.8 37.7 43.2 28.1 13.3 12.4
Bloomberg Commodity Index -0.4 3.7 7.6 -4.5 7.5 1.4

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

How Many New Jobs Does the U.S. Need to Keep Unemployment Low?

Over the past two decades, the unemployment rate in the United States has varied greatly. It spiked following the 2008 financial crisis (rising to 10 percent in October 2009) and again during the Covid-19 pandemic (rising to 14.8 percent in April 2020).

Unemployment Rate (%)

  • August 2025: 4.3
  • August 2023: 3.7
  • August 2021: 5.1
  • August 2019: 3.6
  • August 2017: 4.4
  • August 2015: 5.1
  • August 2013: 7.2
  • August 2011: 9.0
  • August 2009: 9.6
  • August 2007: 4.6
  • August 2005: 4.9

Since late 2021, though, the unemployment rate has remained relatively low – hovering around four percent. From an economic perspective, that puts the U.S. at or near maximum employment. In general, the maximum employment rate for the U.S. is estimated to be 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent, according to Marios Karabarbounis of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The number of new jobs needed to keep employment steady is called the “breakeven employment growth rate”. In January, Victoria Gregory and Alexander Bick of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that about 150,000 new jobs were needed each month to maintain a stable employment rate.

Since the start of this year, immigration has fallen dramatically – and so has the estimate of the number of new jobs needed to keep the employment rate steady. That’s because “…the biggest swing factor in the breakeven growth rate is the population growth rate.” With population numbers falling, just 32,000 to 82,000 jobs are needed each month to keep employment at the current level.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”

—Theodore Roosevelt, Former U.S. President

Wishing you and your families well,
Sean M. Dowling, CFP, EA
President, The Dowling Group Wealth Management

Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.

  • Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
  • Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
  • The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
  • All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
  • The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
  • The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
  • Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
  • The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
  • International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
  • Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
  • Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
  • Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
  • You cannot invest directly in an index.
  • Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
  • The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
  • The Price-to-Earning (P/E) ratio is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means investors are paying more for each unit of net income, thus, the stock is more expensive compared to one with a lower P/E ratio.
  • These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
  • This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
  • The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
  • Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.reuters.com/business/instant-view-us-job-growth-slows-sharply-august-unemployment-rate-ticks-higher-2025-09-05/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Reuters-Instant-View-US-Job.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/us-employers-add-just-22-000-jobs-unemployment-rate-rises or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Bloomberg-Weak-US-Payroll-3.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/010616/impact-fed-interest-rate-hike.asp https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=undefined or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Bloomberg-Stocks-Fall-As-Bleak.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/09-08-25-Barrons-DJIA-SP-NASDAQ.pdf

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025

https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htmhttps://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2025/eb_25-32

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/apr/breakeven-employment-growth-simple-useful-benchmark

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/aug/lower-immigration-projections-mean-lower-breakeven-employment-growth

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/labor

ADV & Investment Objectives: Please contact The Dowling Group if there are any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, or if you wish to impose, add or modify any reasonable restrictions to the management of your account. Our current disclosure statement is set forth on Part II of Form ADV and is available for your review upon request.