The Markets

When investor preferences shift and money flows from one sector, industry, investment style or geographic region into another, it is called a market rotation.

For years, stock markets in the United States have outperformed stock markets elsewhere. “The outperformance is attributed to U.S. exceptionalism fueled by a strong culture of innovation and entrepreneurship; more flexible labor markets; higher productivity; stronger consumer consumption driving demand for goods and services; a more favorable regulatory environment; lower corporate taxes; stronger intellectual property rights; and more open markets and trade policy,” reported Larry Swedroe of Morningstar.

One consequence of U.S. outperformance is that investors outside of the United States own a lot of U.S. stocks, about $18.4 trillion, reported Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg. The percent of European investors’ total equity portfolios invested in U.S. stocks has more than tripled since 2011, in part due to strong performance.

Now, Europe’s financial markets are outperforming those in the United States. Alice Gledhill, Abhinav Ramnarayan, and Julien Ponthus of Bloomberg reported last week:

“Across assets of all stripes, the Old Continent is collectively trouncing America in a way that’s rarely been seen before… German bonds last week beat Treasuries by the most ever. And while European shares have been knocked by the trade war, they’re turning out to be far more resilient than American ones.”

Over the last two months, global investors have backed away from United States markets. Bank of America’s monthly global fund manager survey found that asset managers have reduced U.S. allocations by more than half since February. “A majority think a trade war that triggers global recession is the biggest risk for markets,” reported Reuters.

The recent geographic market rotation was a reminder of the importance of diversification. While diversification won’t prevent losses, it can help investors effectively manage risk. Investors who held a geographical diversified portfolio may have fared better this year than those who invested only in the United States.

Last week, which was shortened by a holiday, major U.S. stock indices moved lower, reported Teresa Rivas of Barron’s. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed over the week.


Data as of 4/17/25 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 Index -1.5% -10.2% 5.2% 6.4% 12.9% 9.8%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index 3.4 2.7 6.2 2.3 7.0 2.0
10-year Treasury Note (yield only) 4.5 N/A 4.6 2.9 0.7 1.9
Gold (per ounce) 2.3 26.6 38.3 19.0 14.3 10.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.4 4.2 0.7 -8.7 10.6 0.1

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The Curious Path of the U.S. Dollar

It’s easy to overlook the importance of the U.S. dollar. Many people have a few bills tucked in their wallets to buy sodas from vending machines, purchase vegetables at a farmer’s market, or pay their babysitters at the end of an evening out.

A lot of the currency issued by the United States is not held by U.S. citizens and U.S. companies. It is tucked away in central banks around the world. For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the world’s primary reserve currency, reported The Economist. The newspaper explained:

“For decades investors have counted on the stability of American assets, making them the keystones of global finance. The depth of a $27trn market helps make Treasuries a haven; the dollar dominates trade in everything from goods and commodities to derivatives. The system is buttressed by the Federal Reserve, which promises low inflation, and by America’s sturdy governance, under which foreigners and their money have been welcome and secure.”

The U.S. dollar is not as dominant as it once was. In the early 2000s, many central banks began to diversify their holdings into Australian and Canadian dollars, Swedish krona, and Swiss francs, reported The Economist.

Regardless, the reason other countries keep their reserves in U.S. dollars is because the U.S. has large and open financial markets and other countries can access their reserves when needed, reported Anshu Siripurapu and Noah Berman of CFR.

Is the U.S. Dollar a Safe Haven?

Normally, when markets become volatile and investors flee to perceived “safe havens”, the U.S. dollar strengthens. But that isn’t what happened recently. Since the start of the year, the United States dollar has weakened despite market volatility, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s:

“…the chaotic rollout of… tariff policy has resulted in declines in the dollar and prices of longer-term U.S. government securities in tandem with declines in risky assets such as stocks—a reaction contrary to the currency’s and Treasuries’ usual performance as havens during episodes of market volatility. Markets stabilized in the latest week but remain on edge…”

One market concern is that falling demand for the U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields could spell trouble for the United States. High demand makes it possible for the U.S. to borrow money at a low cost, reported CFR. If demand falls, that could change. Jesse Pound of CNBC reported:

“…rising Treasury yields also cloud the outlook for U.S. government spending, and by extension economic growth. Higher yields mean the U.S. government will owe more interest on any debt it rolls over or issues for new spending, exacerbating worries about the federal deficit.”

The federal deficit is the difference between what the government receives and what it pays out. Each annual deficit is added to the national debt.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“All that you touch You Change.
All that you Change Changes you.
The only lasting truth Is Change.”

—Octavia Butler, Author

Wishing you and your families well,
Sean M. Dowling, CFP, EA
President, The Dowling Group Wealth Management

Please feel free to forward this commentary to family, friends, or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to the list, please reply to this e-mail with their e-mail address and we will ask for their permission to be added.


  • Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
  • Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
  • The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
  • All indexes referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
  • The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
  • The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
  • Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
  • The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
  • International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
  • Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
  • Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
  • Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
  • You cannot invest directly in an index.
  • Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.
  • The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
  • The Price-to-Earning (P/E) ratio is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher P/E ratio means investors are paying more for each unit of net income, thus, the stock is more expensive compared to one with a lower P/E ratio.
  • These views are those of Carson Group Coaching, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
  • This newsletter was prepared by Carson Group Coaching. Carson Group Coaching is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
  • The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
  • Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-sustainable-is-us-exceptionalism

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-04-17/the-world-s-biggest-pain-trade-gets-even-more-painful

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/trump-s-trade-war-boosts-european-stocks-and-bonds-eur-usd or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Bloomberg-Worlds-Biggest-Pain-Trade%20-%203.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-investors-dump-holdings-us-stocks-record-pace-bofa-survey-says-2025-04-15/ or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Bloomberg-End-of-America-First%20-%204.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-chair-powell-stock-market-tariffs-6cad688d?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202504 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Barrons-Stock-Market-Another-Rough-Week%20-%206.pdf

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvalue.htm

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/12/new-year-population.html and https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvalue.htm or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Economist-Trump-Might-Topple%20-%208.pdf

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/16/how-trump-might-topple-the-dollar or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Economist-How-Dollar-Crisis-Would-Unfold%20-%209.pdf

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/04/16/how-a-dollar-crisis-would-unfold

https://www.barrons.com/articles/usd-us-dollar-604de403 or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2025/04-21-25-Barrons-US-Spending-Threatens%20-%2011.pdf

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/dollar-worlds-reserve-currency

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/12/investors-are-growing-concerned-about-a-us-asset-exodus-as-treasuries-and-the-dollar-decline.html

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/7567950-all-that-you-touch-you-change-all-that-you-change

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