May 24, 2017

Next Week May Be Bouncy

How much is too much?

There has been no shortage of drama since the new administration took office - legislative setbacks, controversial hiring and firing, and fiery tweets on various topics. Regardless, U.S. investors and markets remained stalwart until last week when the CBOE Volatility Index (a.k.a. the fear gauge) jumped 46 percent higher and markets declined.

Financial Times explained:

"...a range of stock benchmarks made their biggest single-day fall since November, as the political controversy over Donald Trump ties with Russia undermined investors' faith in the administration's ability to enact its pro-growth policies. Markets subsequently steadied, but investors are primed for further volatility as the White House faces the distraction of a lengthy inquiry led by an independent special counsel."

Markets recovered some ground late in the week as the influence of Washington, D.C. drama was offset by strong earnings news. On Friday, FactSet reported first quarter earnings results were in for 95 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Index and 75 percent had beaten estimates. Altogether, corporate earnings were about 6.0 percent higher than expected.

Earnings performance was particularly strong for companies in the Information Technology, Healthcare, and Financials sectors, and relatively weak for companies in the Telecom Services, Real Estate, and Consumer Staples sectors.

Brace yourself. Next week may be bouncy. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee will release minutes from its most recent meeting. In addition, we'll receive the administration's proposed budget, along with new economic data and consumer sentiment readings.

Data as of 5/19/17 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) -0.4% 6.9% 16.8% 8.1% 12.6% 4.6%
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. 0.4 11.9 17.9 -0.3 5.8 -1.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.2 NA 1.9 2.5 1.7 4.8
Gold (per ounce) 1.7 8.0 -0.1 -1.3 -4.7 6.6
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5 -3.2 0.1 -14.5 -9.0 -7.0
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index 1.4 2.6 7.7 8.8 10.8 5.5

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.

Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

The Bank of Mom and Dad

Are you helping your adult children financially? In 2015, Pew Research investigated whether aging parents received more assistance from adult children or adult children received more assistance from parents. In the United States, Italy, and Germany, they found parents provide more financial assistance to their adult children than the adult children provide to their parents.

The survey found 39 percent of American parents had helped their adult children with errands, housework, or home repairs during the past twelve months, and 48 percent had helped with childcare. Almost two-thirds had provided monetary support. Financial help appeared to be contingent on parents' circumstances. Those with higher household incomes were more likely to give money to adult children.

Becoming the 'Bank of Mom and Dad' can be a slippery slope, according to AARP Magazine. Since parent-child relationships can be emotionally fraught, it's sometimes difficult to gauge when financial assistance is a good idea and when it's not. Should you pay for a car repair? Help with the down payment on a home or apartment? Foot the bill for a grandchild's private school or college? Fund a lavish wedding? Help with medical bills?

The AARP suggested answering four questions, using a scale of 0 to 5, may help parents determine whether to give money to an adult child. The questions are:

  1. Will this investment add stability and security to my child's life?
    (0 = entirely optional; 5 = absolutely necessary)
  2. Is this a short-term or one-time cash need, or is it something that could go on for years?
    (0 = guaranteed, long-term payouts; 5 = absolutely just one time)
  3. Is there risk in the investment beyond the cash outlay, such as financial liability on a contract or damage to your credit?
    (0 = very high levels of risk; 5 = no additional risks)
  4. Can you lend or give this money without fear of damaging your relationship with your child? Or, will it cause tensions or resentments for the people involved?
    (0 = guaranteed tensions or resentments; 5 = everyone is happy)

If the combined answers total 13 or higher, the answer is yes, give money to your adult child. If the total is less than 13, you may want to think twice before opening your wallet.

Weekly Focus - Think About It

"Life is to be lived, not controlled; and humanity is won by continuing to play in face of certain defeat."

—Ralph Ellison, American author of 'Invisible Man'

Best regards,
Sean M. Dowling, CFP, EA
President, The Dowling Group Wealth Management

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  • Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
  • Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
  • These views are those of Peak Advisor Alliance, and not the presenting Representative or the Representative's Broker/Dealer, and should not be construed as investment advice.
  • This newsletter was prepared by Peak Advisor Alliance. Peak Advisor Alliance is not affiliated with the named broker/dealer.
  • The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
  • All indices referenced are unmanaged. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment.
  • The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
  • The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
  • Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce.
  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
  • The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
  • Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
  • Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
  • Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
  • You cannot invest directly in an index.
  • Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
  • Stock investing involves risk including loss of principal.

Sources:

https://www.ft.com/content/83968832-3c42-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23 (or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-22-17_FinancialTimes-Global_Stocks_Rally_After_Midweek_Slide-Footnote_1.pdf)

https://www.ft.com/content/ff43e806-3c6c-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23(or go to https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/peakcontent/+Peak+Commentary/05-22-17_FinancialTimes-Enter_the_Trump_Fade_Brazils_Slump_and_the_Pound_at_%241.30-Footnote_2.pdf)

https://insight.factset.com/hubfs/Resources/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_051917.pdf

http://www.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=BOL_Nav_MAR_hpp

https://about.bgov.com/blog/trumps-budget-aims-balance-steep-cuts-growth/

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2015/05/2015-05-21_family-support-relations_FINAL.pdf

http://www.aarp.org/money/budgeting-saving/info-2016/bank-of-mom-and-dad.html

http://www.shortlist.com/entertainment/books/the-40-most-powerful-literary-quotes#gallery-2

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